In “The Tourism Time Bomb,” (Harvard Business Review, April 2008) the authors, Paul F. Nunes and Mark Spelman, predict a global tourism explosion resulting from an expanding middle class. The message is good news for the economy, good news for timeshare owners or people who want to buy timeshare or resell timeshare, and eye-opening information for travelers and vacationers worldwide.

Tourism Time Bomb Could Result in a Shortage of Hotels and Timeshare Resorts

Yesterday, when the Timeshare Owners Blog looked at this Harvard Business Journal report on vacation trends and tourism, we noted three possible outcomes of such a tourism explosion. The first likelihood deals with a shortage of accommodations and the prediction that hotel rooms could become a scarcity. As noted in the blog post, Good News for the Middle Class Could Mean Good News for Timeshare Real Estate, if this happens, demand will increase tremendously for both hotels and timeshare units. And timeshare owners, especially those who own timeshare with exchange options, or who own multiple timeshare units or timeshare weeks, will be in good shape. If an accommodations surfeit actually happens, then timeshare owners will be in the enviable position of owning vacation property at a locked-in price.

No-Vacancy Signs at Hotels, Timeshare Resorts, and Attractions

The second scenario that could result from a global tourism explosion is that overcrowding and over-demand at popular vacation destinations might result in restrictions on the number of people allowed to visit there. This goes beyond the problem of overbooked hotel rooms and becomes a matter of tougher regulations limiting the number of visitors to sensitive areas such as historic ruins and environmental habitats. It will also mean more days when popular attractions reach sold-out capacity early in the day. Already there are peak times when vacationers arrive at theme parks only to be turned away because the location has reached max capacity.

The report goes on to explain, that with the strange psychology of supply and demand, the destinations with the longest waiting lists, will ironically become the places people most want to visit. Restrictions on visiting certain destinations will simply make those places more desired than ever.

The third situation that could occur because of a surge in tourism is that secondary destinations and even as-yet-undeveloped destinations could turn into vacation hot spots. According to “The Tourism Time Bomb,” China has developed the Hawaii-like Hainan Island and Macao, a gaming paradise located on China’s southern coast. Thanks to the opening of the Qinghai-Tibet rail line, the number of visitors to Tibet increased 64 percent last year to more than 4 million, while high-rollers and gamers of all levels already head to casinos in Biloxi and Detroit to avoid the crowds on the Las Vegas strip.

Buy Timeshare and Get Ahead of the Crowd

As a parting thought, consider this bit of advice from the authors of the report: “Get in while you can.” The only thing I might add to this wisdom would be: “Get in while you can…buy timeshare resales so that the tourism explosion never stands in the way of your vacation.”

This month’s edition of the Harvard Business Review included a very interesting article about the future of tourism both in the US and internationally. With the dark clouds of recession never far from view, it is very good news to hear knowledgeable experts forecasting positive trends in travel and vacationing.

Paul F. Nunes is an executive research fellow with the Accenture Institute for High Performance Business in Boston and London-based Mark Spelman is the global managing director of Accenture’s strategy practice. Together, they researched and wrote, “The Tourism Time Bomb”, which appeared in the Harvard Business Review’s April 2008 issue.

To understand their predictions, you have to start with the fact that they are forecasting the global emergence of a new middle class who will be shopping for vacations and travel. To quote their words, “Indian call-center employees, Russian petrochemical engineers, Chinese middle managers, and Brazilian salespeople are already scouring the web for deals on trips.”

Add to this list the changes in Cuba, (discussed in Saturday’s Timeshare Owners Blog) the American baby boomer, who is relatively insulated from the current US economic situation, Canadians who are enjoying a strong Looney, and other populations worldwide who are or will in the future be spending their money on travel and vacations. Suddenly, it begins to make sense that the United Nations is projecting that the annual number of international tourist visits will nearly double and reach 1.6 billion by the year 2020.

Could A “Bomb” Explode and Shower Us with Timeshare Resorts?

Nunes and Spelmen see three scenarios that could occur because of a surge in vacationing or what they call, “the tourism time bomb”.

The first possibility is that demand for hotel rooms in popular venues will outstrip supply. They go on to explain that the lodging crunch could become so tight, a new type of scalper could emerge, selling hotel rooms, air fares, and other travel related items at whatever top dollar the market will bear.

If this seems hard to imagine, remember that it is already happening in some segments of the travel industry, with the 2007 American Express Global Business Travel Report forecasting an 11 to 14 percent increase in the cost of travel for 2008. Can you envision a future where hotel room nights are pedaled at black market prices?

What A Travel Boom Will Mean to Timeshare Owners

If the predictions of Nunes, Spelman, American Express, or the United Nations turn out to be even halfway correct, then I can only see this as great news for timeshare owners. Timeshare owners will be ahead of the game because they own their vacation or travel accommodations, at a locked in price. These timeshare units will have been purchased at pre-escalation prices and if they were wisely bought as timeshare resales, then the timeshare owner will be even further ahead. When and if the timeshare owner decides to sell timeshare as a resale, he or she may find that the market has become extremely “seller friendly”.

The Tourism Time Bomb definitely gives us food for thought and paints the picture of a future environment that is beneficial for timeshare owners and timeshare real estate in general.

Check in on tomorrow’s Timeshare Owners Blog. I will share further information from this fascinating report and look at the other two travel industry scenarios the authors project.

Every week since February 19, when Fidel Castro stepped down as Cuba’s president, news outlets have been filled with accounts of products and services coming back into the lives of the Cuban people.

Two weeks ago, Cubans were allowed to buy cell phones. Last week, microwave ovens, DVDs, electric bicycles, and pressure cookers became available. Many of the restrictions that Fidel Castro had spent a lifetime imposing on the people of Cuba have already fallen away in the few short months since his brother, Raul Castro, took office as Cuba’s president.

While most Cubans do not yet have the money to afford these luxury items, that too is changing as the government begins to provide better support for its farmers and lift some of the restrictions on manufacturing.

Are New Hotel and Timeshare Resorts on the Horizon for Cuba?

This week, the ban that prohibited Cuban citizens from staying in hotels was lifted. Cuban nationals, as of April 1, are permitted to stay in hotels or use hotel services like exercise rooms. These changes are long overdue and in time, should help springboard other, equally positive developments. But as the free world shares in welcoming the return of these basic rights to Cubans, what do these changes really mean for Cuba as a tourist destination?

Despite the removal of many restrictions, the economy of Cuba will have to heal considerably before most residents can afford to enjoy hotel stays at luxury resorts. It will take even longer before the country’s economic infrastructure will be able to support the development of timeshare resorts or vacation ownership property.

In the 1990’s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba made tentative steps toward developing tourism, by building or revamping hotels to attract visitors primarily from Europe and Canada. Currently Cuba has both hotels and all-inclusive resorts; some offering beachside relaxation while others showcase Cuba’s rich history. Several Canadian developers have tried in recent years to fund and build timeshare resorts in Cuba and with the recent change in government there, it is logical to expect that such projects could soon become reality.

Canadian Tourists, But Not Americans to Vacation in Cuba…Yet

Most US citizens find traveling to Cuba challenging because of the Trading with the Enemy Act that forbids US citizens from spending money in Cuba. Exemptions apply to journalists, government officials, researchers, and people attending conferences. Other US citizens, including those who have relatives in Cuba or professionals such as doctors, nurses, or educators, may also be able to obtain the documents necessary to travel between the US and Cuba. Click here to read the US Department of State’s full disclosure on who may travel to Cuba.

Some US citizens visit Cuba by first flying to other countries, and booking their travel, directly from that country to Cuba. Once there, Cuba imposes no restrictions on US spending; quite the opposite, as they are all too eager to receive tourist dollars from any part of the world.

Yes, timeshare resorts and new hotels may definitely be in Cuba’s future. But until US law changes, Americans may find that the closest they get to Cuban vacation ownership is a Key West timeshare where the signage at the water’s edge reads: “90 miles to Cuba.”

• Hyatt Windward Pointe Resort II
• Hyatt Windward Pointe Resort
• Hyatt Sunset Harbor Resort
• Hyatt Beach House Resort
• Galleon Resort and Marina
• Coconut Mallory Marina and Resort
• Banyan Resort

You can now be a Wyndham Vacation owner (Wyndham timeshare) at Yellowstone Park, with the recent opening of a new timeshare resort, located less than one mile from the park’s entrance. The Orlando, Florida based timeshare company, Wyndham Vacation Ownership, has just opened WorldMark West Yellowstone. This new timeshare resort, (according to the official press release issued by Wyndham Vacation Ownership) is the only major branded vacation ownership resort in West Yellowstone, Montana.

Mountain Lodge Amenities at New WorldMark Timeshare

West Yellowstone is a significant location, not only because Yellowstone is America’s oldest and most famous national park, but because it is the geographic cross point where the states of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana meet. The timeshare resort is part of WorldMark: The Club Portfolio and offers 112 timeshare condos in one, two, and three-bedroom units, along with four-bedroom Presidential Suites. The three-story, mountain lodge-style timeshare resort includes an indoor pool, a recreation and fitness center, and other amenities.

According to Franz Hanning, the president and CEO of Wyndham Vacation Ownership, “As the only flagged vacation ownership property in the West Yellowstone area, WorldMark West Yellowstone offers our owners and their guests a world-renowned, year-round vacation experience. When combining the rugged beauty of Yellowstone National Park with the unparalleled service and comfort people have come to expect from our Wyndham-branded resorts, we are providing a truly unbeatable vacation experience.”

To learn more about becoming a WorldMark timeshare owner by buying timeshare resales or taking advantages of opportunities in WorldMark timeshare rentals, visit Sell My Timeshare NOW.

And to keep an eye on Old Faithful, the largest geyser at Yellowstone National Park, enjoy this link to Old Faithful Geyser Live! – Video WebCam